Originally, the "War On Terror" was projected to cost no more than $50 billion and after being greeted as "liberators", the "cakewalk" would take no more than six months -- maybe a year.
Nine years later it has cost more than $1.1 trillion and growing.
In the face of severe economic difficulties at home. accumulation of mountains of debt, and questions about Defense Department spending excesses raised by non-partisan Defense Secretary Gates, financial perspective on the war is called for.
Apart from the painful costs in life and limb suffered by our military forces and their families, basic costs must be held to an emotionally unencumbered cost/benefit analysis. For starters:
1. The cost to date for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is over $1.1 trillion.
* This is the equivalent of spending $1 million a day --- for 3,200 years.
* 3200 years ago Christ was not yet born and Moses was a newborn
floating down the Nile in a basket.
2. Estimates are that there are 150 full time insurgent Taliban forces and we've spent $337.8 billion to date in Afghanistan.
* That's $2.2 billion per full time Taliban insurgent. If we can't kill them with 150,000 troops maybe we should try to buy them off by giving each Taliban insurgent the same net worth as Baron Hilton.
3. Americans have spent an average of $8,000 per taxpayer to support the wars.
* The average Bush "middle class tax cut" for 4 out of 5 families was about $350.
4. President Bush's much maligned TARP program is projected to cost about $110 billion. less than originally estimated, or about $800 per taxpayer (and some of that has already been paid back and more will be paid back).
* The government's attempt to bolster or "bail out" the economy (however you wish to catagorize it) is 10% of the cost of Iraq and Afghanistan.
5. America is not at war.
Only the military and their families are at war.
The troops are exhausted from a war that has already extended beyond WW II by three years. While philosophic, ideological and political discussions are indulged in at home, the troops are out of sight and sadly, out of the public mind. The troops are overextended and overlooked beyond bumper sticker sloganisms and their experience contrarily makes them more uncertain and less confident concerning their mission. In an extraordinarily unpatriotic fashion, we ignore the problems they face and the burdens they carry as if they were problem free, ever dependable robots.
Their dependability is not at issue here.
It is our dependability as thoughtful and respectful citizens that is at issue.
* During the past year, active duty suicides and "high risk behavior" killed more soldiers than combat in Iraq and Afghanistan combined.
*While there were a record number of 239 suicides among active duty and reservist soldiers, (74 of these were from drug overdoses). This number has tripled since 2001.
* There were also an additional known 1,712 failed suicide attempts by active duty soldiers.
*The rate of suicides by post conflict veterans aged 20-24 is twice the rate of their active duty brethren.
* A recently issued US Army report indicated that one-third of the troops are taking at least one prescription drug and 14% are taking powerful pain killers. The report further indicates that "the force is becoming increasingly dependent on drugs, anti-depressants,amphetamines and narcotics."
We know the costs. Can we afford it? Is it worth it?
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Sunday, August 8, 2010
Socialism in America? You Ain't Just Whistlin Dixie
Have you heard rumblings of a counter tea party movement afoot in the land which calls the tea party "the bite the hand that feeds you caucus?" A rogue e-mail making the rounds called the movement: "free loading, progress-blocking, benefit grabbing,resource sucking, violent and hypocritical."
Southern politicians in particular complain about BIG GOVERNMENT and TAXES because it resonates easily and conforms to the post civil war self-perception of that region as victims of northern conspiracies.
However, as it turns out, in spite of their persistent anti-government rhetoric, Southern politicians are complety comfortable accepting the last line of Tennessee Williams' play, "A Streetcar Named Desire": "I have always depended on the kindness of strangers." Down South it has become habitual to do just that. Southerners get back a whole lot more than they give in taxes.
America's wealth is indeed being redistributed -- from what the independent Tax Foundation calls the "giving states" of New York, New Jersey, New England, most of the northeast and California --- to the receiving states" consisting of all of the south and ironically, Alaska.
For example, those poor socialists in New Jersey only get back 56 cents on the tax dollar. But for every tax dollar Mississippi sends to Washington they get back $2.02, more than doubling their money! That's a Madoff return paid by the "giving states". Same for Louisiana, Alabama, Arkansas, West Virginia, Rand Paul's Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Virginia, and North Carolina. Then of course, there is Alaska.
The South gets the re-distribution of federal tax money because it seems least capable of helping itself out, It has:
* The lowest per cap % of high school diplomas.
* The fewest college degrees per capita.
* The highest rates of adult illiteracy and often their illiteracy rate exceeds their unemployment rate. E.G. in Mississippi, adult illiteracy is 16% and unemployment is 11.5%. Illiteracy in Alabama is 15% and unemployment is 11%. These means that Southern states have may adults working who cannot read beyond the 5th grade level. THUS ---
* The highest poverty rates and the lowest average household income in the nation.
* The highest percentages of citizens without health insurance yet most likely to call health care reform "socialism."
* The most unhealthy region in the nation, leading in obesity, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, cancer deaths per 100,000 while managing to excerise the least.
* The most violent region in the country being a majority of the top 18 states states in deaths by firearms. (Louisiana - 19.5 firearm deaths per 100,000. Mississippi, 17.3 deaths per 100,000 etc. as oppposed to New York with 5.1 per 100,000 or Massachusetts with 3.1 per 100,000 etc.)
* With 35% of the population, the South has created only 17% of the nation's patents over the last 25 years. California alone with 10% of the national population, has nearly 20% of the patents over the last 25 years.
* Louisiana is a special welfare case having a long established dysfunctional dependence on the oil industry in its economy, its politics, in its winking willingness to debase the environment all combining to create an oil based modern plantation mentality. They attack the federal government on the national news everyday for being slow or for failing to act to "restore our way of life" after the BP disaster as if American taxpayers are morally obligated to maintain the oil plantation to which Louisianans' sold out long ago.
Now some Southern public office holders and seekers from Tennessee to Texas are directly or indirectly talking about sucession and this has many others wondering if that is a threat or a promise.
Redistribution of wealth? The South appears to be on the dole and things there have a way of never managing to get any better. Perhaps our Southern brethren should stand up for their outspoken beliefs and send the money back. Or perhaps they should consider jumping on the "Street Car Named Get Serious".
Southern politicians in particular complain about BIG GOVERNMENT and TAXES because it resonates easily and conforms to the post civil war self-perception of that region as victims of northern conspiracies.
However, as it turns out, in spite of their persistent anti-government rhetoric, Southern politicians are complety comfortable accepting the last line of Tennessee Williams' play, "A Streetcar Named Desire": "I have always depended on the kindness of strangers." Down South it has become habitual to do just that. Southerners get back a whole lot more than they give in taxes.
America's wealth is indeed being redistributed -- from what the independent Tax Foundation calls the "giving states" of New York, New Jersey, New England, most of the northeast and California --- to the receiving states" consisting of all of the south and ironically, Alaska.
For example, those poor socialists in New Jersey only get back 56 cents on the tax dollar. But for every tax dollar Mississippi sends to Washington they get back $2.02, more than doubling their money! That's a Madoff return paid by the "giving states". Same for Louisiana, Alabama, Arkansas, West Virginia, Rand Paul's Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Virginia, and North Carolina. Then of course, there is Alaska.
The South gets the re-distribution of federal tax money because it seems least capable of helping itself out, It has:
* The lowest per cap % of high school diplomas.
* The fewest college degrees per capita.
* The highest rates of adult illiteracy and often their illiteracy rate exceeds their unemployment rate. E.G. in Mississippi, adult illiteracy is 16% and unemployment is 11.5%. Illiteracy in Alabama is 15% and unemployment is 11%. These means that Southern states have may adults working who cannot read beyond the 5th grade level. THUS ---
* The highest poverty rates and the lowest average household income in the nation.
* The highest percentages of citizens without health insurance yet most likely to call health care reform "socialism."
* The most unhealthy region in the nation, leading in obesity, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, cancer deaths per 100,000 while managing to excerise the least.
* The most violent region in the country being a majority of the top 18 states states in deaths by firearms. (Louisiana - 19.5 firearm deaths per 100,000. Mississippi, 17.3 deaths per 100,000 etc. as oppposed to New York with 5.1 per 100,000 or Massachusetts with 3.1 per 100,000 etc.)
* With 35% of the population, the South has created only 17% of the nation's patents over the last 25 years. California alone with 10% of the national population, has nearly 20% of the patents over the last 25 years.
* Louisiana is a special welfare case having a long established dysfunctional dependence on the oil industry in its economy, its politics, in its winking willingness to debase the environment all combining to create an oil based modern plantation mentality. They attack the federal government on the national news everyday for being slow or for failing to act to "restore our way of life" after the BP disaster as if American taxpayers are morally obligated to maintain the oil plantation to which Louisianans' sold out long ago.
Now some Southern public office holders and seekers from Tennessee to Texas are directly or indirectly talking about sucession and this has many others wondering if that is a threat or a promise.
Redistribution of wealth? The South appears to be on the dole and things there have a way of never managing to get any better. Perhaps our Southern brethren should stand up for their outspoken beliefs and send the money back. Or perhaps they should consider jumping on the "Street Car Named Get Serious".
Monday, July 19, 2010
Is American Capitalism Dead?
In the life cycle of an individual investor, age impacts investment decisions big time. The older the investor, the greater the caution and safety and the less growth is sought. That makes sense for aging retirees or soon-to-be retirees. When it comes to a capitalist economy that invests like an old retiree, that's a different story--an end-of-the-road story.
We are depending on the government to take care of just about everything even as we blame it for just about anything.
Capitalism--no economy for old men.
As the economy flounders, non-financial companies are sitting on $1.8 trillion in cash, which is a 25 percent greater cash reserve than existed at the start of the recession. Why don't they invest it in new job creation now?
Credit-worthy small businesses can't get to financial company capital despite their bonuses paying stock resurrection. Why won't they lend?
It will take years to receover the more than eight million jobs lost during the contraction. Remember, it took the entire decade of the '80s to create 1.3 million jobs for small businesses while Fortune 500 companies lost about two million jobs.
Only innovation generates new jobs. Not financial engineering. Historically, the times of the greatest financial stress were also the times of the greatest innovation in American history.
Nearly one third of American workers are in jobs that weren't listed in the Census Bureau's occupation codes in the 1960s.
So, eight million jobs just to get even? It can be done. During the Clinton presidency there were an average of 240,000 new jobs per month powered by the Internet, the Information Age and wireless communication. There were more than 22 million new jobs created in those eight years.
In the Bush years, three million new jobs were created, averaging 31,300 new jobs per month.
Where will the new jobs come from?
What Information Age equivalent is afoot? Name an industry or industries that can create 240,000 new jobs a month. Or 133,000 new net jobs a month, which is what it will take to recover in five years.
There isn't such an industry, and as long as the best brains in the nation are working on non-productive financial and defense innovation, there won't be one for a long, long time.
We have been engaged in the search for "certainly" in financial markets--not for new ideas, products and employment in the actual marketplace. If it were supposed to be certain, it would be called "entitlement" and not "investment."
Certainty was what derivatives and CDOs supposedly gave--the certainly of algorithms. Instead, we got the proverbial "madness of crowds" all following the same algorithmic strategies at once.
If taxes and government regulation are the determining factors n terms of successful business, then why bother with capitalism?
Evidently, capital is waiting for daddy to tell them when they will be immune from risk and have guaranteed profits. In baseball, umpires have different strike zones and all a pitcher can ask is consistency. Obama isn't doing anything he didn't promise he would do before he was elected. Elections have consequences. There are no surprises. There is empirical consistency. Play some ball. Swing away and quite hoping for a walk.
We are depending on the government to take care of just about everything even as we blame it for just about anything.
Capitalism--no economy for old men.
As the economy flounders, non-financial companies are sitting on $1.8 trillion in cash, which is a 25 percent greater cash reserve than existed at the start of the recession. Why don't they invest it in new job creation now?
Credit-worthy small businesses can't get to financial company capital despite their bonuses paying stock resurrection. Why won't they lend?
It will take years to receover the more than eight million jobs lost during the contraction. Remember, it took the entire decade of the '80s to create 1.3 million jobs for small businesses while Fortune 500 companies lost about two million jobs.
Only innovation generates new jobs. Not financial engineering. Historically, the times of the greatest financial stress were also the times of the greatest innovation in American history.
Nearly one third of American workers are in jobs that weren't listed in the Census Bureau's occupation codes in the 1960s.
So, eight million jobs just to get even? It can be done. During the Clinton presidency there were an average of 240,000 new jobs per month powered by the Internet, the Information Age and wireless communication. There were more than 22 million new jobs created in those eight years.
In the Bush years, three million new jobs were created, averaging 31,300 new jobs per month.
Where will the new jobs come from?
What Information Age equivalent is afoot? Name an industry or industries that can create 240,000 new jobs a month. Or 133,000 new net jobs a month, which is what it will take to recover in five years.
There isn't such an industry, and as long as the best brains in the nation are working on non-productive financial and defense innovation, there won't be one for a long, long time.
We have been engaged in the search for "certainly" in financial markets--not for new ideas, products and employment in the actual marketplace. If it were supposed to be certain, it would be called "entitlement" and not "investment."
Certainty was what derivatives and CDOs supposedly gave--the certainly of algorithms. Instead, we got the proverbial "madness of crowds" all following the same algorithmic strategies at once.
If taxes and government regulation are the determining factors n terms of successful business, then why bother with capitalism?
Evidently, capital is waiting for daddy to tell them when they will be immune from risk and have guaranteed profits. In baseball, umpires have different strike zones and all a pitcher can ask is consistency. Obama isn't doing anything he didn't promise he would do before he was elected. Elections have consequences. There are no surprises. There is empirical consistency. Play some ball. Swing away and quite hoping for a walk.
Monday, May 24, 2010
Advice to Newt Gingrich Upon Reading His Newest Book
Dear Newt,
Relax man! Time wastes too quickly to be calling people who disagree with you "Socialists" and "Nazis." Is it worth it, Newt?
Whenever you think it's the end of the world or before you punch out people who disagree with you, read this. Take a deep breath. Remember the next part of carpe diem is that "tomorrow we die."
Prelude (from Book 9)
William Wordsworth
Twas in truth an hour
Of universal ferment: mildest men
Were agitated, and commotions, strife
Of passion and opinion, filled the walls
Of peaceful houses with unquiet sounds.
The soil of common life was, at that time,
Too hot to tred upon. Oft said I then,
And not then only, "What a mockery this
Of history. the past and that to come!
Now do I feel how all men are deceived,
Reading of nations and their works, in faith,
Faith given to vanity and emptiness;
Oh! laughter for the page that would reflect
To future times the face of what now is!
The land all swarmed with passion, like a plain
Devoured by locusts, --Carra, Gorsas, -- add
A hundred other names, forgotten now,
Nor to be heard of more; yet, they were powers,
Like earthquakes, shocks repeated day by day,
And felt through every nook of town and field.
Such was the state of things.
Relax man! Time wastes too quickly to be calling people who disagree with you "Socialists" and "Nazis." Is it worth it, Newt?
Whenever you think it's the end of the world or before you punch out people who disagree with you, read this. Take a deep breath. Remember the next part of carpe diem is that "tomorrow we die."
Prelude (from Book 9)
William Wordsworth
Twas in truth an hour
Of universal ferment: mildest men
Were agitated, and commotions, strife
Of passion and opinion, filled the walls
Of peaceful houses with unquiet sounds.
The soil of common life was, at that time,
Too hot to tred upon. Oft said I then,
And not then only, "What a mockery this
Of history. the past and that to come!
Now do I feel how all men are deceived,
Reading of nations and their works, in faith,
Faith given to vanity and emptiness;
Oh! laughter for the page that would reflect
To future times the face of what now is!
The land all swarmed with passion, like a plain
Devoured by locusts, --Carra, Gorsas, -- add
A hundred other names, forgotten now,
Nor to be heard of more; yet, they were powers,
Like earthquakes, shocks repeated day by day,
And felt through every nook of town and field.
Such was the state of things.
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Lady Liberty to the World: 'Eines Tages Alles' or 'Just Kidding?'
Immigrants have always been the driving force behind the American Dream. Xavier University's Institute for Politics and the American Dream recent survey verifies that the most fervent believers in the American Dream are immigrants, Latinos and African Americans.
And, yet, American history is loaded with varying degrees of resistance to immigrants. It's; therefore, ironic that in America immigration could be stridently resisted by native-born citizens. For Americans, this is a paradox because everyone, apart from Native Americans, is connected to immigrants.
Everyone.
Ben Franklin was upset in 1749 because the German immigrant population that year nearly equaled Philadelphia's resident population. Franklin feared Philadelphia would become a "German colony."
Abraham Lincoln, noting the emergence of the Know Nothing Party formed to stop Irish-Catholic immigration said, "We began by declaring that 'all men are created equal' and when the Know Nothings get control, it will read, 'all men are created equal except Negroes, foreigners and Catholics.'"
And now in 2010 the Arizona legislature, spearheading an anti-immigration movement, has declared that police are required to stop "illegal-looking" persons on Arizona streets requiring them to produce "papers."
A little-mentioned but disturbing part of the law is that private citizens may sue local governments or agencies "if they think the law is not being enforced," inspiring legalistic and costly vigilantism and citizens "reporting" anyone they have a mind to. If the police think the charge is groundless, the put-off citizen can still tie up courts and run up bills by suing the government.
Maybe it's about the fear of losing jobs?
No. As a 2010 study by the Fiscal Policy Institute shows, "immigration and growth go hand in hand, and areas with low levels of growth wind up with low levels of immigration but with highly skilled immigrants."
So, if your community is teeming with immigrants: congratulations. It means you are in the midst of a boom.
In Phoenix, the region with the highest economic growth rate in America over the last 20 years, the immigrant worker population is only 21 percent of the work force. In places such as New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles, they have nearly twice Phoenix's immigrant workforce percentage and, yet, they have not needed to bring in the Gestapo.
In fact, Phoenix actually contradicts the Fiscal Policy study because, in spite of the massive growth, it has a relatively small immigrant worker population.
Areas with the lowest growth and lowest rates of immigration also have the highest skill, education and income in these areas. It is these immigrants who take the "good-paying jobs" because there aren't enough natives qualified to meet the needs of these low-growth, lower-education communities.
If we look at places with very low immigrant workforces like Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Detroit (all under 10 percent), we discover that these immigrant groups are often equally or, more likely, better educated than the native population. In Pittsburgh for example, 63 percent of the native population has "some college" but among immigrants there 79 percent have attended college.
Then there's "border security." But we're closing borders quite effectively in the largest sense. In the U.S., 25 percent of all scientists and engineers are foreign born as are 40 percent of all engineering professors and 50 percent of all PhDs in engineering, computer sciences and life sciences. Since 9/11 the number of foreigners with exceptional skills or advanced degrees allowed into this country has dropped 65 percent!
In 2003, for the first time, America began importing more technology than it exported. According to Cornell's physics Nobel Prize winner, Robert Richardson, we have a serious scientific and engineering manpower problem. We rank 23rd in the world in the percentage of students who become engineers and scientists.
Less than three years ago we ranked third.
The anti-immigration movement in Arizona reeks of a police state that, ironically, could not be more intrusive in our personal lives while simultaneously expanding the role of government to levels seen only in totalitarian states.
A dear friend of mine is a German-Jewish immigrant, and he came here with his parents and sister at the end of WWII--the parents having escaped Nazi Germany by the skin of their teeth. My friend was 6 years old when their ship arrived in New York Harbor. His mother took his hand and guided him to the main deck to see his new homeland. The dominant scene was not the New York skyline but the overwhelming and powerful presence of the Statue of Liberty.
"What's that?" he shouted in German, breaking the awed silence of his fellow passengers.
His mother leaned over and in German whispered, "Eines tages alles." Or, "In time, everything."
Still true?
Or do we have a new Know Nothing movement on our hands?
Or worse, does the lady in the harbor now wear a sign that says: "Just kidding, suckers?"
And, yet, American history is loaded with varying degrees of resistance to immigrants. It's; therefore, ironic that in America immigration could be stridently resisted by native-born citizens. For Americans, this is a paradox because everyone, apart from Native Americans, is connected to immigrants.
Everyone.
Ben Franklin was upset in 1749 because the German immigrant population that year nearly equaled Philadelphia's resident population. Franklin feared Philadelphia would become a "German colony."
Abraham Lincoln, noting the emergence of the Know Nothing Party formed to stop Irish-Catholic immigration said, "We began by declaring that 'all men are created equal' and when the Know Nothings get control, it will read, 'all men are created equal except Negroes, foreigners and Catholics.'"
And now in 2010 the Arizona legislature, spearheading an anti-immigration movement, has declared that police are required to stop "illegal-looking" persons on Arizona streets requiring them to produce "papers."
A little-mentioned but disturbing part of the law is that private citizens may sue local governments or agencies "if they think the law is not being enforced," inspiring legalistic and costly vigilantism and citizens "reporting" anyone they have a mind to. If the police think the charge is groundless, the put-off citizen can still tie up courts and run up bills by suing the government.
Maybe it's about the fear of losing jobs?
No. As a 2010 study by the Fiscal Policy Institute shows, "immigration and growth go hand in hand, and areas with low levels of growth wind up with low levels of immigration but with highly skilled immigrants."
So, if your community is teeming with immigrants: congratulations. It means you are in the midst of a boom.
In Phoenix, the region with the highest economic growth rate in America over the last 20 years, the immigrant worker population is only 21 percent of the work force. In places such as New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles, they have nearly twice Phoenix's immigrant workforce percentage and, yet, they have not needed to bring in the Gestapo.
In fact, Phoenix actually contradicts the Fiscal Policy study because, in spite of the massive growth, it has a relatively small immigrant worker population.
Areas with the lowest growth and lowest rates of immigration also have the highest skill, education and income in these areas. It is these immigrants who take the "good-paying jobs" because there aren't enough natives qualified to meet the needs of these low-growth, lower-education communities.
If we look at places with very low immigrant workforces like Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Detroit (all under 10 percent), we discover that these immigrant groups are often equally or, more likely, better educated than the native population. In Pittsburgh for example, 63 percent of the native population has "some college" but among immigrants there 79 percent have attended college.
Then there's "border security." But we're closing borders quite effectively in the largest sense. In the U.S., 25 percent of all scientists and engineers are foreign born as are 40 percent of all engineering professors and 50 percent of all PhDs in engineering, computer sciences and life sciences. Since 9/11 the number of foreigners with exceptional skills or advanced degrees allowed into this country has dropped 65 percent!
In 2003, for the first time, America began importing more technology than it exported. According to Cornell's physics Nobel Prize winner, Robert Richardson, we have a serious scientific and engineering manpower problem. We rank 23rd in the world in the percentage of students who become engineers and scientists.
Less than three years ago we ranked third.
The anti-immigration movement in Arizona reeks of a police state that, ironically, could not be more intrusive in our personal lives while simultaneously expanding the role of government to levels seen only in totalitarian states.
A dear friend of mine is a German-Jewish immigrant, and he came here with his parents and sister at the end of WWII--the parents having escaped Nazi Germany by the skin of their teeth. My friend was 6 years old when their ship arrived in New York Harbor. His mother took his hand and guided him to the main deck to see his new homeland. The dominant scene was not the New York skyline but the overwhelming and powerful presence of the Statue of Liberty.
"What's that?" he shouted in German, breaking the awed silence of his fellow passengers.
His mother leaned over and in German whispered, "Eines tages alles." Or, "In time, everything."
Still true?
Or do we have a new Know Nothing movement on our hands?
Or worse, does the lady in the harbor now wear a sign that says: "Just kidding, suckers?"
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Fear and Grieving on the Protest Trail
The recent State of the American Dream Survey by Xavier University's Institute for Politics and the American Dream shows a predictable overall decline of faith that the American Dream can be achieved in our time.
While understandable in this major recession, underlying the numbers are indications that the dim view of the future is deeper than the recession.
Certain numbers are harbingers of something new and possibly disturbing. For example,
1. The core idea of a positive American Dream legacy is in trouble with 68% of us doubting the possibility of American Dream achievement for our descendants.
2. 74% believe the world doesn't look up to America the way it used to.
3. A majority of Americans (52%) now believe that the world looks elsewhere for the creation of the future.
4. In the midst of otherwise overwhelming concern about jobs and the recession, only 6% consider "a good job" to be elemental to the American Dream. It's an assumption--not a dream.
This is bigger than the recession.
A positive outlook toward the future is a core aspect of the American Dream because it is based on opportunity. The tension in the country today is oddly disconnected from the future and its energy seems committed to extending the present. It's about maintenance, not improvement. It's not about aspiration; it's about the status quo. The American Dream is not being endangered by the new protest movement. It's being ignored.
While Americans remain confident in themselves, there is deep disappointment in the institutions entrusted with the job of steering our future course. Institutional failures are seen across the board. Political institutions. Corporate and religious institutions as well.
The strongest belief in the American Dream and in the future exists among immigrants, Latinos and African Americans. The American Dream always was and continues persistently to be created and re-created in the imaginations of people on the outside--outside the country or outside mainstream successes taken for granted by those whose families have achieved them.
Amidst a very critical view of the American Dream's current status, there is a consistent disparity in outlook between non-whites and whites, immigrants and native-born Americans.
African Americans, Latinos, and first- or second-generation immigrants view the American Dream more positively on nearly every measure in this survey than do white Americans. The part of our society still worst off in terms of social or economic measurements is the same group that is most positive about the American Dream.
African Americans are the only demographic group where a majority believes that reaching the American Dream is easier than it was for their parents. More than 40% believe it will be even easier for their own children to reach.
The United States has 305 million people today. Immigration will continue to change America's ethnic and racial makeup. The population is projected to reach 439 million in 2050.
In the division between the hopeful and the less hopeful, there is behavioral evidence from a social science point of view that something resembling "grief" is being played out in certain parts of the white community. The sense of encroachment by immigrants and non-whites is not uncommon, but the realization that minority status will soon be applicable to white America has, for some, a desperate finality to it. There is a concerning sense of loss of control and consequent fear.
The stages of grief, usually connected with death, were identified by psychiatrist Elizabeth Kubler-Ross:
The hopeful prospects seen in the Africa-American and Hispanic communities are partly consequent to the election of President Obama. Similarly, it is not a difficult step to symbolically link Obama's election to a sense of demise among certain parts of the white community. For these, the morning after Obama's election began a period of denial, which now quite obviously has moved to anger.
Denial is the "birther" movement refusing to accept Obama's legitimacy fed by an underlying belief that their country has been stolen from them.
Denial is the irrational refusal to accept reality--such as the passage of the healthcare law. At least 10 members of Congress are reporting threats of violence. Racial epithets and spitting on black Congressmen have been televised. These and other incidents are an angry consequence to passage of the healthcare law.
Bargaining has yet to appear but acceptance, perhaps a long way off, is nonetheless inevitable. The question is how extensive and lasting will be the corrosive effects of denial and anger--particularly in the upcoming elections?
While understandable in this major recession, underlying the numbers are indications that the dim view of the future is deeper than the recession.
Certain numbers are harbingers of something new and possibly disturbing. For example,
1. The core idea of a positive American Dream legacy is in trouble with 68% of us doubting the possibility of American Dream achievement for our descendants.
2. 74% believe the world doesn't look up to America the way it used to.
3. A majority of Americans (52%) now believe that the world looks elsewhere for the creation of the future.
4. In the midst of otherwise overwhelming concern about jobs and the recession, only 6% consider "a good job" to be elemental to the American Dream. It's an assumption--not a dream.
This is bigger than the recession.
A positive outlook toward the future is a core aspect of the American Dream because it is based on opportunity. The tension in the country today is oddly disconnected from the future and its energy seems committed to extending the present. It's about maintenance, not improvement. It's not about aspiration; it's about the status quo. The American Dream is not being endangered by the new protest movement. It's being ignored.
While Americans remain confident in themselves, there is deep disappointment in the institutions entrusted with the job of steering our future course. Institutional failures are seen across the board. Political institutions. Corporate and religious institutions as well.
The strongest belief in the American Dream and in the future exists among immigrants, Latinos and African Americans. The American Dream always was and continues persistently to be created and re-created in the imaginations of people on the outside--outside the country or outside mainstream successes taken for granted by those whose families have achieved them.
Amidst a very critical view of the American Dream's current status, there is a consistent disparity in outlook between non-whites and whites, immigrants and native-born Americans.
African Americans, Latinos, and first- or second-generation immigrants view the American Dream more positively on nearly every measure in this survey than do white Americans. The part of our society still worst off in terms of social or economic measurements is the same group that is most positive about the American Dream.
African Americans are the only demographic group where a majority believes that reaching the American Dream is easier than it was for their parents. More than 40% believe it will be even easier for their own children to reach.
The United States has 305 million people today. Immigration will continue to change America's ethnic and racial makeup. The population is projected to reach 439 million in 2050.
In the division between the hopeful and the less hopeful, there is behavioral evidence from a social science point of view that something resembling "grief" is being played out in certain parts of the white community. The sense of encroachment by immigrants and non-whites is not uncommon, but the realization that minority status will soon be applicable to white America has, for some, a desperate finality to it. There is a concerning sense of loss of control and consequent fear.The stages of grief, usually connected with death, were identified by psychiatrist Elizabeth Kubler-Ross:
*Denial
*Anger
*Bargaining
*Depression
*Acceptance
*Anger
*Bargaining
*Depression
*Acceptance
The hopeful prospects seen in the Africa-American and Hispanic communities are partly consequent to the election of President Obama. Similarly, it is not a difficult step to symbolically link Obama's election to a sense of demise among certain parts of the white community. For these, the morning after Obama's election began a period of denial, which now quite obviously has moved to anger.
Denial is the "birther" movement refusing to accept Obama's legitimacy fed by an underlying belief that their country has been stolen from them.
Denial is the irrational refusal to accept reality--such as the passage of the healthcare law. At least 10 members of Congress are reporting threats of violence. Racial epithets and spitting on black Congressmen have been televised. These and other incidents are an angry consequence to passage of the healthcare law.
Bargaining has yet to appear but acceptance, perhaps a long way off, is nonetheless inevitable. The question is how extensive and lasting will be the corrosive effects of denial and anger--particularly in the upcoming elections?
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
What Happened To The White Picket Fence?
In the American Consumer Republic, the Xavier University for Politics and the American Dream's first national survey of the Dream found that the alleged sanctity of home ownership may be the creation of advertisers and the realtor lobby.
This shift in the "ownership society" mentality may or may not be permanent, but for now and probably for years to come, it's likely to be bad for real estate developers, agents, home builders,, building materials, furniture and appliance manufacturers.
Only 6% of Survey respondents made home ownership their first choice when asked: "what comes to mind --- not in terms of what anyone else believes the dream is --- but in terms of what you think the American Dream is." (Another 7% made it their second choice.)
"Opportunity" was the first choice of 21% and for 14% it was the second choice. Not far behind were "freedom" and "family." (Of course there is nothing particularly "American" about "family." )
On the housing market front, lenders are finding that the social stigma of walking away from mortgage obligations is becoming culturally acceptable and seen as smart in some cases. This moral elasticity would have mortified home owners in the past. Part of "making it" was not just owning a home, but also being able to afford it.
As market watchers wait for housing numbers to improve to the peak levels 0f 2005, as if it were inevitably only a matter of time, someone should tell them that they have a better chance of Godot stopping by for dinner.
To hear the gurus talk about the housing market and new construction gives the impression that the housing industry exists to create jobs and economic activity --- not houses. But this isn't a "build it and they will come proposition." Take a tour of Tokyo and see the number of buildings and other projects constructed unnecessarily that now remain virtually empty. It's reminiscent of old Soviet bloc make-work projects where the fruit of labor is being busy, not being productive economically or otherwise.
Corroborating the Dream Survey, a recent article in US News, "Surviving the American Makeover," notes that:
"America's consumer industrial complex has an arsenal of tools for prying money out of consumers. But they're based on the dated premise that material stuff represents success."
Undeniably, advertising has influenced American Dream folklore and helped fashion the American tableaux in its clients' images. But the chances of an unvarnished assessment of the Dream is greatest in bad times like ours -- when people are most skeptical about the re-castings advertising makes possible.
In these tough economic times, the Survey catches the perceived value of hard work at its peak because the rewards for it are directly connected to accomplishment and not luck or social position as they seem to be in our gilded ages.
Sometimes advertisers seem angry at consumers for not spending in tough times. During the Depression, the consumer was portrayed as tight-fisted because of "unwarranted fear" or weakness rather than as unemployed or impoverished. Allstate uses a softened version of this today by appropriating FDR's "nothing to fear but fear itself" speech which is an indirect way of blaming the consumer for not spending -- as if the only constraints to a booming economy were psychological.
In the Survey, the expression of concern about the recession and jobs was strong but not in connection with the Dream, as only 8% thought it was important to the dream.
That's because it is not a dream to have a good job in America. It's an assumption --- upon which the launch of a personal Dream is predicated.
Hope for Dream attainment is declining along with America's view of political and corporate leadership.
On the plus side, Americans are realizing that there's more to the Dream than stuff.
This shift in the "ownership society" mentality may or may not be permanent, but for now and probably for years to come, it's likely to be bad for real estate developers, agents, home builders,, building materials, furniture and appliance manufacturers.
Only 6% of Survey respondents made home ownership their first choice when asked: "what comes to mind --- not in terms of what anyone else believes the dream is --- but in terms of what you think the American Dream is." (Another 7% made it their second choice.)
"Opportunity" was the first choice of 21% and for 14% it was the second choice. Not far behind were "freedom" and "family." (Of course there is nothing particularly "American" about "family." )
On the housing market front, lenders are finding that the social stigma of walking away from mortgage obligations is becoming culturally acceptable and seen as smart in some cases. This moral elasticity would have mortified home owners in the past. Part of "making it" was not just owning a home, but also being able to afford it.
As market watchers wait for housing numbers to improve to the peak levels 0f 2005, as if it were inevitably only a matter of time, someone should tell them that they have a better chance of Godot stopping by for dinner.
To hear the gurus talk about the housing market and new construction gives the impression that the housing industry exists to create jobs and economic activity --- not houses. But this isn't a "build it and they will come proposition." Take a tour of Tokyo and see the number of buildings and other projects constructed unnecessarily that now remain virtually empty. It's reminiscent of old Soviet bloc make-work projects where the fruit of labor is being busy, not being productive economically or otherwise.
Corroborating the Dream Survey, a recent article in US News, "Surviving the American Makeover," notes that:
"America's consumer industrial complex has an arsenal of tools for prying money out of consumers. But they're based on the dated premise that material stuff represents success."
Undeniably, advertising has influenced American Dream folklore and helped fashion the American tableaux in its clients' images. But the chances of an unvarnished assessment of the Dream is greatest in bad times like ours -- when people are most skeptical about the re-castings advertising makes possible.
In these tough economic times, the Survey catches the perceived value of hard work at its peak because the rewards for it are directly connected to accomplishment and not luck or social position as they seem to be in our gilded ages.
Sometimes advertisers seem angry at consumers for not spending in tough times. During the Depression, the consumer was portrayed as tight-fisted because of "unwarranted fear" or weakness rather than as unemployed or impoverished. Allstate uses a softened version of this today by appropriating FDR's "nothing to fear but fear itself" speech which is an indirect way of blaming the consumer for not spending -- as if the only constraints to a booming economy were psychological.
In the Survey, the expression of concern about the recession and jobs was strong but not in connection with the Dream, as only 8% thought it was important to the dream.
That's because it is not a dream to have a good job in America. It's an assumption --- upon which the launch of a personal Dream is predicated.
Hope for Dream attainment is declining along with America's view of political and corporate leadership.
On the plus side, Americans are realizing that there's more to the Dream than stuff.
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